Public figures on rare-earth production, prices, producer results, and demand — the market a rare-earth royalty business would be built on. Every figure below is drawn from a named public source, with the prior-period figure shown alongside so the direction is visible. Figures are aggregated public estimates, not investment or professional advice.
U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (published February 2026), unless otherwise noted. Figures in metric tons, rare-earth-oxide equivalent.
| Figure | Value | Trend vs prior period | Source & date |
|---|---|---|---|
| World rare-earth mine production, 2025 | 390,000 t | ▲ Up 380,000 t in 2024 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| China mine production, 2025 | 270,000 t · 69.2% of world | — Flat 270,000 t in 2024 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| United States mine production, 2025 | 51,000 t · valued at $240m | ▲ Up 45,500 t in 2024 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| Australia mine production, 2025 | 29,000 t | — Flat 29,000 t in 2024 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| Burma (Myanmar) mine production, 2025 | 22,000 t | ▼ Down 27,000 t in 2024 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| World rare-earth reserves | >75,000,000 t · China 44,000,000 t | — No prior figure | USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| U.S. net import reliance, compounds & metals, 2025 | 67% of apparent consumption | ▲ Up 53% in 2024 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| China's share of magnet rare-earth refining, 2024 | 91% refined · 60% mined · 94% of sintered NdFeB magnets made | — Structural | IEA, Rare Earth Elements 2025, May 21, 2025, as cited in sector analyses iea.org |
Free-on-board (FOB) prices are export prices at the port of shipment; China domestic prices are quoted in yuan per tonne and are a different basis. Do not mix the two.
| Figure | Value | Trend vs prior period | Source & date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Praseodymium-neodymium oxide, FOB | $115–$121/kg | ▼ Down $3/kg Prior week $118–$124/kg |
SMM, Rare Earth Weekly Wrap-Up, Nov 2, 2026 news.metal.com |
| Neodymium oxide, FOB | $138–$140/kg | ▼ Down $3/kg Prior week $141–$143/kg |
SMM, Rare Earth Weekly Wrap-Up, Nov 2, 2026 news.metal.com |
| Terbium oxide, FOB | $1,150–$1,238/kg | ▼ Down $6/kg Prior week $1,156–$1,244/kg |
SMM, Rare Earth Weekly Wrap-Up, Nov 2, 2026 news.metal.com |
| Praseodymium-neodymium oxide, annual average price | $69/kg in 2025 | ▲ Up $55/kg in 2024; $75/kg in 2023 |
USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Argus Media data), Feb 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| Praseodymium-neodymium oxide, China domestic | 743,000–745,000 yuan/tonne | — No prior figure As of Oct 15, 2026 |
Radial Magnets, November 2026 Magnet Industry Update, Nov 3, 2026, citing SMM radialmagnet.com |
| Dysprosium oxide, China domestic | 1.40–1.42 million yuan/tonne | — No prior figure As of Oct 15, 2026 |
Radial Magnets, November 2026 Magnet Industry Update, Nov 3, 2026, citing SMM radialmagnet.com |
| Dysprosium oxide, ex-China premium | $1,250–$1,675/kg in Rotterdam vs $270–$330/kg FOB China | — Indicative quotes Fastmarkets, Aug 27, 2026 |
Discovery Alert, November 2026, reporting Fastmarkets assessments discoveryalert.com |
| U.S. Department of Defense NdPr price floor | $110/kg, 10 years | — Fixed contract term Agreed July 10, 2025 |
MP Materials / U.S. Department of Defense, July 10, 2025 payneinstitute.mines.edu |
Company results as reported by the companies and in earnings coverage.
| Figure | Value | Trend vs prior period | Source & date |
|---|---|---|---|
| MP Materials, revenue, Q3 2026 | $147.7m | ▲ Up 176% YoY | MP Materials, Q3 2026 results, Nov 5, 2026 fool.com |
| MP Materials, NdPr production, Q3 2026 | 1,018 metric tons | ▲ Up 41% YoY Sales volume 1,020 t, up 94% |
MP Materials, Q3 2026 results, Nov 5, 2026 fool.com |
| MP Materials, realized NdPr price, Q3 2026 | ~$100/kg | ▲ Up $51/kg realized in 2024 |
MP Materials, Q3 2026 results, Nov 5, 2026; Payne Institute, 2025 payneinstitute.mines.edu |
| Lynas Rare Earths, revenue, FY26 | A$977.9m | ▲ Up 76% A$556.5m in FY25 |
Lynas Rare Earths, FY26 results, ASX, Aug 26, 2026 announcements.asx.com.au |
| Lynas Rare Earths, NdPr production, FY26 | 7,260 t | ▲ Up 6,558 t in FY25; sales 7,337 t |
Lynas Rare Earths, FY26 results, ASX, Aug 26, 2026 announcements.asx.com.au |
| Lynas Rare Earths, record average selling price | A$98.2/kg, June 2026 quarter | ▲ Up 63% YoY | Lynas Rare Earths, quarterly report, July 2026 announcements.asx.com.au |
Demand forecasts and policy measures shaping the market.
| Figure | Value | Trend vs prior period | Source & date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total rare-earth demand, IEA forecast | 123 kt by 2030 (STEPS) | ▲ Up 91 kt in 2024; 78 kt in 2021 |
IEA, Rare Earth Elements 2025, May 21, 2025 iea.org |
| Clean-energy rare-earth demand, IEA forecast | 38 kt by 2030 | ▲ Up 19 kt in 2024; 11 kt in 2021 |
IEA, Rare Earth Elements 2025, May 21, 2025 iea.org |
| Global electric vehicle sales, 2025 | 20.7 million · ~25% of car sales | ▲ Up 20% YoY 2026 forecast ~23 million |
IEA, Global EV Outlook 2026, May 20, 2026 iea.org |
| China export controls, April 2025 | Licences on 7 elements: Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y | — In force, never suspended | MOFCOM Announcement No. 18, Apr 4, 2025; USGS MCS 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
| China export controls, October 2025 package | 5 more elements + equipment & technology controls + 0.1% foreign-content rule | — Suspended Nov 7, 2025 to Nov 10, 2026 | MOFCOM, Oct 9, 2025; USGS MCS 2026 pubs.usgs.gov |
Price bases differ. FOB export prices, China domestic prices in yuan, annual average prices, and realized producer prices are different measurements of different things. The table keeps them in separate rows and names the basis in each row; do not compare a row in one section with a row in another as if they were the same price.
Ex-China quotes are indicative. The Rotterdam prices for dysprosium and terbium come from thinly traded markets. They show the direction and scale of the gap, not a clearing price at volume.
Forecasts are forecasts. IEA figures to 2030 are scenario projections (STEPS), not observed data. Market-size estimates from commercial forecasters vary widely by definition and are not shown here as a single consensus figure.
Figures are aggregated public estimates, not investment or professional advice. They are compiled to describe the market this domain serves, not to recommend any investment, purchase, or strategy.
Rare
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